作品相关 (10)

    2.4 Error estimation

    2.4.1 Relative errors in total energy and angular momentum

    According to one of the basic properties of symplectic integrators， which conserve the physically conservative quantities well (total orbital energy and angular momentum)， our long-term numerical integrations seem to have been performed with very small errors. The averaged relative errors of total energy (～10?9) and of total angular momentum (～10?11) have remained nearly constant throughout the integration period (Fig. 1). The special startup procedure， warm start， would have reduced the averaged relative error in total energy by about one order of magnitude or more.

    Relative numerical error of the total angular momentum δA/A0 and the total energy δE/E0 in our numerical integrationsN± 1，2，3， where δE and δA are the absolute change of the total energy and total angular momentum， respectively， andE0andA0are their initial values. The horizontal unit is Gyr.

    Note that different operating systems， different mathematical libraries， and different hardware architectures result in different numerical errors， through the variations in round-off error handling and numerical algorithms. In the upper panel of Fig. 1， we can recognize this situation in the secular numerical error in the total angular momentum， which should be rigorously preserved up to machine-ε precision.

    2.4.2 Error in planetary longitudes

    Since the symplectic maps preserve total energy and total angular momentum of N-body dynamical systems inherently well， the degree of their preservation may not be a good measure of the accuracy of numerical integrations， especially as a measure of the positional error of planets， i.e. the error in planetary longitudes. To estimate the numerical error in the planetary longitudes， we performed the following procedures. We compared the result of our main long-term integrations with some test integrations， which span much shorter periods but with much higher accuracy than the main integrations. For this purpose， we performed a much more accurate integration with a stepsize of 0.125 d (1/64 of the main integrations) spanning 3 × 105 yr， starting with the same initial conditions as in the N?1 integration. We consider that this test integration provides us with a ‘pseudo-true’ solution of planetary orbital evolution. Next， we compare the test integration with the main integration， N?1. For the period of 3 × 105 yr， we see a difference in mean anomalies of the Earth between the two integrations of ～0.52°(in the case of the N?1 integration). This difference can be extrapolated to the value ～8700°， about 25 rotations of Earth after 5 Gyr， since the error of longitudes increases linearly with time in the symplectic map. Similarly， the longitude error of Pluto can be estimated as ～12°. This value for Pluto is much better than the result in Kinoshita & Nakai (1996) where the difference is estimated as ～60°.

    3 Numerical results – I. Glance at the raw data

    In this section we briefly review the long-term stability of planetary orbital motion through some snapshots of raw numerical data. The orbital motion of planets indicates long-term stability in all of our numerical integrations: no orbital crossings nor close encounters between any pair of planets took place.

    3.1 General description of the stability of planetary orbits

    First， we briefly look at the general character of the long-term stability of planetary orbits. Our interest here focuses particularly on the inner four terrestrial planets for which the orbital time-scales are much shorter than those of the outer five planets. As we can see clearly from the planar orbital configurations shown in Figs 2 and 3， orbital positions of the terrestrial planets differ little between the initial and final part of each numerical integration， which spans several Gyr. The solid lines denoting the present orbits of the planets lie almost within the swarm of dots even in the final part of integrations (b) and (d). This indicates that throughout the entire integration period the almost regular variations of planetary orbital motion remain nearly the same as they are at present.

    Vertical view of the four inner planetary orbits (from the z -axis direction) at the initial and final parts of the integrationsN±1. The axes units are au. The xy -plane is set to the invariant plane of Solar system total angular momentum.(a) The initial part ofN+1 ( t = 0 to 0.0547 × 10 9 yr).(b) The final part ofN+1 ( t = 4.9339 × 10 8 to 4.9886 × 10 9 yr).(c) The initial part of N?1 (t= 0 to ?0.0547 × 109 yr).(d) The final part ofN?1 ( t =?3.9180 × 10 9 to ?3.9727 × 10 9 yr). In each panel， a total of 23 684 points are plotted with an interval of about 2190 yr over 5.47 × 107 yr . Solid lines in each panel denote the present orbits of the four terrestrial planets (taken from DE245).

    The variation of eccentricities and orbital inclinations for the inner four planets in the initial and final part of the integration N+1 is shown in Fig. 4. As expected， the character of the variation of planetary orbital elements does not differ significantly between the initial and final part of each integration， at least for Venus， Earth and Mars. The elements of Mercury， especially its eccentricity， seem to change to a significant extent. This is partly because the orbital time-scale of the planet is the shortest of all the planets， which leads to a more rapid orbital evolution than other planets; the innermost planet may be nearest to instability. This result appears to be in some agreement with Laskar's (1994， 1996) expectations that large and irregular variations appear in the eccentricities and inclinations of Mercury on a time-scale of several 109 yr. However， the effect of the possible instability of the orbit of Mercury may not fatally affect the global stability of the whole planetary system owing to the small mass of Mercury. We will mention briefly the long-term orbital evolution of Mercury later in Section 4 using low-pass filtered orbital elements.

    The orbital motion of the outer five planets seems rigorously stable and quite regular over this time-span (see also Section 5).

    3.2 Time–frequency maps

    Although the planetary motion exhibits very long-term stability defined as the non-existence of close encounter events， the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics can change the oscillatory period and amplitude of planetary orbital motion gradually over such long time-spans. Even such slight fluctuations of orbital variation in the frequency domain， particularly in the case of Earth， can potentially have a significant effect on its surface climate system through solar insolation variation (cf. Berger 1988).

    To give an overview of the long-term change in periodicity in planetary orbital motion， we performed many fast Fourier transformations (FFTs) along the time axis， and superposed the resulting periodgrams to draw two-dimensional time–frequency maps. The specific approach to drawing these time–frequency maps in this paper is very simple – much simpler than the wavelet analysis or Laskar's (1990， 1993) frequency analysis.

    Divide the low-pass filtered orbital data into many fragments of the same length. The length of each data segment should be a multiple of 2 in order to apply the FFT.

    Each fragment of the data has a large overlapping part: for example， when the ith data begins from t=ti and ends at t=ti+T， the next data segment ranges from ti+δT≤ti+δT+T， where δT?T. We continue this division until we reach a certain number N by which tn+T reaches the total integration length.

    We apply an FFT to each of the data fragments， and obtain n frequency diagrams.

    In each frequency diagram obtained above， the strength of periodicity can be replaced by a grey-scale (or colour) chart.

    We perform the replacement， and connect all the grey-scale (or colour) charts into one graph for each integration. The horizontal axis of these new graphs should be the time， i.e. the starting times of each fragment of data (ti， where i= 1，…， n). The vertical axis represents the period (or frequency) of the oscillation of orbital elements.

    We have adopted an FFT because of its overwhelming speed， since the amount of numerical data to be decomposed into frequency components is terribly huge (several tens of Gbytes).

    A typical example of the time–frequency map created by the above procedures is shown in a grey-scale diagram as Fig. 5， which shows the variation of periodicity in the eccentricity and inclination of Earth in N+2 integration. In Fig. 5， the dark area shows that at the time indicated by the value on the abscissa， the periodicity indicated by the ordinate is stronger than in the lighter area around it. We can recognize from this map that the periodicity of the eccentricity and inclination of Earth only changes slightly over the entire period covered by the N+2 integration. This nearly regular trend is qualitatively the same in other integrations and for other planets， although typical frequencies differ planet by planet and element by element.

    4.2 Long-term exchange of orbital energy and angular momentum

    We calculate very long-periodic variation and exchange of planetary orbital energy and angular momentum using filtered Delaunay elements L， G， H. G and H are equivalent to the planetary orbital angular momentum and its vertical component per unit mass. L is related to the planetary orbital energy E per unit mass as E=?μ2/2L2. If the system is completely linear， the orbital energy and the angular momentum in each frequency bin must be constant. Non-linearity in the planetary system can cause an exchange of energy and angular momentum in the frequency domain. The amplitude of the lowest-frequency oscillation should increase if the system is unstable and breaks down gradually. However， such a symptom of instability is not prominent in our long-term integrations.

    In Fig. 7， the total orbital energy and angular momentum of the four inner planets and all nine planets are shown for integration N+2. The upper three panels show the long-periodic variation of total energy (denoted asE- E0)， total angular momentum ( G- G0)， and the vertical component ( H- H0) of the inner four planets calculated from the low-pass filtered Delaunay elements.E0， G0， H0 denote the initial values of each quantity. The absolute difference from the initial values is plotted in the panels. The lower three panels in each figure showE-E0，G-G0 andH-H0 of the total of nine planets. The fluctuation shown in the lower panels is virtually entirely a result of the massive jovian planets.

    Comparing the variations of energy and angular momentum of the inner four planets and all nine planets， it is apparent that the amplitudes of those of the inner planets are much smaller than those of all nine planets: the amplitudes of the outer five planets are much larger than those of the inner planets. This does not mean that the inner terrestrial planetary subsystem is more stable than the outer one: this is simply a result of the relative smallness of the masses of the four terrestrial planets compared with those of the outer jovian planets. Another thing we notice is that the inner planetary subsystem may become unstable more rapidly than the outer one because of its shorter orbital time-scales. This can be seen in the panels denoted asinner 4 in Fig. 7 where the longer-periodic and irregular oscillations are more apparent than in the panels denoted astotal 9. Actually， the fluctuations in theinner 4 panels are to a large extent as a result of the orbital variation of the Mercury. However， we cannot neglect the contribution from other terrestrial planets， as we will see in subsequent sections.

    4.4 Long-term coupling of several neighbouring planet pairs

    Let us see some individual variations of planetary orbital energy and angular momentum expressed by the low-pass filtered Delaunay elements. Figs 10 and 11 show long-term evolution of the orbital energy of each planet and the angular momentum in N+1 and N?2 integrations. We notice that some planets form apparent pairs in terms of orbital energy and angular momentum exchange. In particular， Venus and Earth make a typical pair. In the figures， they show negative correlations in exchange of energy and positive correlations in exchange of angular momentum. The negative correlation in exchange of orbital energy means that the two planets form a closed dynamical system in terms of the orbital energy. The positive correlation in exchange of angular momentum means that the two planets are simultaneously under certain long-term perturbations. Candidates for perturbers are Jupiter and Saturn. Also in Fig. 11， we can see that Mars shows a positive correlation in the angular momentum variation to the Venus–Earth system. Mercury exhibits certain negative correlations in the angular momentum versus the Venus–Earth system， which seems to be a reaction caused by the conservation of angular momentum in the terrestrial planetary subsystem.

    It is not clear at the moment why the Venus–Earth pair exhibits a negative correlation in energy exchange and a positive correlation in angular momentum exchange. We may possibly explain this through observing the general fact that there are no secular terms in planetary semimajor axes up to second-order perturbation theories (cf. Brouwer & Clemence 1961; Boccaletti & Pucacco 1998). This means that the planetary orbital energy (which is directly related to the semimajor axis a) might be much less affected by perturbing planets than is the angular momentum exchange (which relates to e). Hence， the eccentricities of Venus and Earth can be disturbed easily by Jupiter and Saturn， which results in a positive correlation in the angular momentum exchange. On the other hand， the semimajor axes of Venus and Earth are less likely to be disturbed by the jovian planets. Thus the energy exchange may be limited only within the Venus–Earth pair， which results in a negative correlation in the exchange of orbital energy in the pair.

    As for the outer jovian planetary subsystem， Jupiter–Saturn and Uranus–Neptune seem to make dynamical pairs. However， the strength of their coupling is not as strong compared with that of the Venus–Earth pair.

    5 ± 5 × 1010-yr integrations of outer planetary orbits

    Since the jovian planetary masses are much larger than the terrestrial planetary masses， we treat the jovian planetary system as an independent planetary system in terms of the study of its dynamical stability. Hence， we added a couple of trial integrations that span ± 5 × 1010 yr， including only the outer five planets (the four jovian planets plus Pluto). The results exhibit the rigorous stability of the outer planetary system over this long time-span. Orbital configurations (Fig. 12)， and variation of eccentricities and inclinations (Fig. 13) show this very long-term stability of the outer five planets in both the time and the frequency domains. Although we do not show maps here， the typical frequency of the orbital oscillation of Pluto and the other outer planets is almost constant during these very long-term integration periods， which is demonstrated in the time–frequency maps on our webpage.

    In these two integrations， the relative numerical error in the total energy was ～10?6 and that of the total angular momentum was ～10?10.

    5.1 Resonances in the Neptune–Pluto system

    Kinoshita & Nakai (1996) integrated the outer five planetary orbits over ± 5.5 × 109 yr . They found that four major resonances between Neptune and Pluto are maintained during the whole integration period， and that the resonances may be the main causes of the stability of the orbit of Pluto. The major four resonances found in previous research are as follows. In the following description，λ denotes the mean longitude，Ω is the longitude of the ascending node and ? is the longitude of perihelion. Subscripts P and N denote Pluto and Neptune.

    Mean motion resonance between Neptune and Pluto (3:2). The critical argument θ1= 3 λP? 2 λN??P librates around 180° with an amplitude of about 80° and a libration period of about 2 × 104 yr.

    The argument of perihelion of Pluto ωP=θ2=?P?ΩP librates around 90° with a period of about 3.8 × 106 yr. The dominant periodic variations of the eccentricity and inclination of Pluto are synchronized with the libration of its argument of perihelion. This is anticipated in the secular perturbation theory constructed by Kozai (1962).

    The longitude of the node of Pluto referred to the longitude of the node of Neptune，θ3=ΩP?ΩN， circulates and the period of this circulation is equal to the period of θ2 libration. When θ3 becomes zero， i.e. the longitudes of ascending nodes of Neptune and Pluto overlap， the inclination of Pluto becomes maximum， the eccentricity becomes minimum and the argument of perihelion becomes 90°. When θ3 becomes 180°， the inclination of Pluto becomes minimum， the eccentricity becomes maximum and the argument of perihelion becomes 90° again. Williams & Benson (1971) anticipated this type of resonance， later confirmed by Milani， Nobili & Carpino (1989).

    An argument θ4=?P??N+ 3 (ΩP?ΩN) librates around 180° with a long period，～ 5.7 × 108 yr.

    In our numerical integrations， the resonances (i)–(iii) are well maintained， and variation of the critical arguments θ1，θ2，θ3 remain similar during the whole integration period (Figs 14–16 ). However， the fourth resonance (iv) appears to be different: the critical argument θ4 alternates libration and circulation over a 1010-yr time-scale (Fig. 17). This is an interesting fact that Kinoshita & Nakai's (1995， 1996) shorter integrations were not able to disclose.

    6 Discussion

    What kind of dynamical mechanism maintains this long-term stability of the planetary system? We can immediately think of two major features that may be responsible for the long-term stability. First， there seem to be no significant lower-order resonances (mean motion and secular) between any pair among the nine planets. Jupiter and Saturn are close to a 5:2 mean motion resonance (the famous ‘great inequality’)， but not just in the resonance zone. Higher-order resonances may cause the chaotic nature of the planetary dynamical motion， but they are not so strong as to destroy the stable planetary motion within the lifetime of the real Solar system. The second feature， which we think is more important for the long-term stability of our planetary system， is the difference in dynamical distance between terrestrial and jovian planetary subsystems (Ito & Tanikawa 1999， 2001). When we measure planetary separations by the mutual Hill radii (R_)， separations among terrestrial planets are greater than 26RH， whereas those among jovian planets are less than 14RH. This difference is directly related to the difference between dynamical features of terrestrial and jovian planets. Terrestrial planets have smaller masses， shorter orbital periods and wider dynamical separation. They are strongly perturbed by jovian planets that have larger masses， longer orbital periods and narrower dynamical separation. Jovian planets are not perturbed by any other massive bodies.

    The present terrestrial planetary system is still being disturbed by the massive jovian planets. However， the wide separation and mutual interaction among the terrestrial planets renders the disturbance ineffective; the degree of disturbance by jovian planets is O(eJ)(order of magnitude of the eccentricity of Jupiter)， since the disturbance caused by jovian planets is a forced oscillation having an amplitude of O(eJ). Heightening of eccentricity， for example O(eJ)～0.05， is far from sufficient to provoke instability in the terrestrial planets having such a wide separation as 26RH. Thus we assume that the present wide dynamical separation among terrestrial planets (> 26RH) is probably one of the most significant conditions for maintaining the stability of the planetary system over a 109-yr time-span. Our detailed analysis of the relationship betw